Mortgage Digest: MPC National Conference edition

2025 forecasted as a banner year for Canada’s mortgage market

Thousands of mortgage professionals gathered in Montreal this week for the sold-out 2024 National Mortgage Conference, coming together to network, enhance their businesses, and explore the latest trends and products shaping Canada’s mortgage industry.

Hosted by media personality and former etalk host Ben Mulroney, the conference provided a platform for Canada’s mortgage industry professionals to upgrade skills, expand networks, and delve into current industry issues, including Mortgage Professionals Canada’s latest advocacy efforts. While 2023 presented challenges for many brokers, the outlook for 2024 is more optimistic, with easing inflation and easing mortgage rates expected to drive a surge in business activity.

“We have dealt with a lot these last 12 months, and together we’ve achieved a lot for the mortgage industry,” said Lauren van den Berg, president and CEO of Mortgage Professionals Canada, in her opening remarks. “Our relentless advocacy has made housing a top priority for policymakers. Mortgages and access to homeownership are now front and centre for every political party and every decision maker.”

Mortgage Professionals Canada Chair Barb Cook

Joe Jacobs, MPC’s chair for 2024, said the organization’s efforts over the course of 2024 included launching a multilingual ‘Find Me A Broker’ campaign to connect homeowners with mortgage professionals, which he said had generated over 40 million impressions, as well as a new AML policy manual template. MPC also rolled out new — and sold-out — broker education courses across Canada.

Incoming MPC Chair Barb Cook, senior business development manager at BMO BrokerEdge, told members MPC would spend the next year building even stronger relationships with key decision makers and stakeholders in the mortgage industry.

“Together, we’ll make sure our 15,000 members across the country are well represented during this crucial time for our industry,” Cook said. “As chair, my role is about helping all of you in this room and in our industry, and supporting the association as they champion the issues that you’ve told us matter most to you and your businesses.”

Other conference highlights…

Fixed mortgage rates may not follow Bank of Canada’s cuts: TD’s former chief economist

With the Bank of Canada’s overnight interest rate down to 3.75%, the lowest in two years, many consumers are hoping mortgage rates will drop meaningfully across the board. But Don Drummond, retired senior vice president and chief economist at TD Bank, isn’t so sure about a decline in rates on fixed mortgages.

Don Drummond, retired senior vice president and chief economist at TD Bank — Don Drummond, former senior vice president and chief economist at TD Bank

“A lot of people, for a lot of years, said rock-bottom interest rates were the new normal. I never believed that,” Drummond told attendees at the National Mortgage Conference. “Obviously, it was a big shock when they went up.”

Variable-rate mortgages follow the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate, which is now 125 basis points lower than in May. Fixed mortgage rates, on the other hand, are tied to bond yields, which the Bank doesn’t directly control. Drummond noted Canadians shouldn’t bank on bond yields dropping much more from here.

“Odds are, they will be above the bank rate, and we will have a positive yield curve. Why? Because time is uncertainty,” Drummond said. “If you want to borrow money from me for 10 years, I’m going to want a premium because I don’t know what’s going to happen. You could lose your income over that 10 years. Inflation could take off.”

Between 1996 and 2007, Drummond said, Canada’s inflation rate – when averaged out – was right on the Bank of Canada’s 2% inflation rate target. Bond yields were stable, with the typical 10-year sitting 87 basis points above the bank rate. Sometime next summer, Drummond explained, Canada might see a situation where the overnight bank rate is 2.75% but bond yields that are actually higher than today’’s return of 3.25%’s levels. That, in turn, could eliminate the possibility of a discount on a fixed-rate mortgage.

“The new 5-year mortgage rate could be somewhere in 4.9% to 5%, not terribly different than it is today,” Drummond said.

Drummond argues that Canada’s ultra-low interest rates from 2011 to 2019 did more harm than good. Intended as economic relief after the Great Recession, the prolonged low rates contributed to ballooning house prices, making homes less affordable even as mortgages became cheaper.

“You had a rock-bottom interest rate, but you had to buy a million dollar house,” he told the audience. “How does that help anybody?”

Lender panel tackles top issues facing Canada’s mortgage industry

National Mortgage Conference - Montreal 2024 Lender Panel

The perennial fan-favourite lender panel on the final day of the National Mortgage Conference brought together a cross-section of key Canadian lenders to discuss pressing issues in Canada’s mortgage industry.

On fixed vs. variable rate selection

When it comes to choosing between fixed and variable rates, lenders are seeing more borrowers lean toward variable options to keep payments manageable in the short term. Devon Ajram sees variable rates as a smart, flexible choice for now, offering room to move into a fixed rate when the time is right. “A variable rate is an excellent place to put your customer for a little while,” he explains, noting that variable options are becoming a bigger part of TD’s mortgage mix.

Jason Ellis, President and CEO of First National, urged brokers to remember past lessons when guiding clients on choosing between variable and fixed rates. Reflecting on a time when 85% of borrowers opted for variable rates to save a few basis points, he cautioned that while a lower payment may seem appealing, fixed rates offer stability that can be crucial in times of instability. “I find that there is a behaviour amongst borrowers to chase the lowest payment in the moment, and that isn’t always the right decision.”

Generative AI’s growing role in the mortgage industry

Generative AI is transforming the mortgage industry, bringing efficiency and service quality to new heights for both lenders and clients.

Tracy Gomes, Senior VP, Real Estate Secured Lending at Scotiabank, explained how, automated credit risk underwriting, instant pre-approvals, and property valuation models are just some of the advancements that better serve the client in terms of speed and efficiency while also generating more revenue for banks. Generative AI, she noted, has the potential to reduce up to “30, 40, 50% of the more mundane aspects of a mortgage application” so underwriters can focus on the quality of deals and fraud prevention rather than data entry.

Katy Boshart, President & CEO of Manulife Bank, echoed this potential, saying, “we have a lot of actual examples of where we use generative AI to improve the experience, to make lives better for customers and make things easier.” While this technology shows great promise, she cautioned that the industry is “still a long way from gen-AI mortgage underwriting,” noting that banks need time to work on “data integration, cloud compute power,” and preparing for new regulatory demands.

Looking ahead to 2025

Despite TD expecting a potential “mortgage payment shock of about 24% for nearly half of its mortgage portfolio set to renew over the next few years, the bank isn’t overly concerned about risk to Canadian borrowers. According to Devon Ajram, Vice-President and National Director of TD’s Broker Services, this confidence is due to the “strong asset base” of Canadian borrowers, many of whom have shown resilience in handling past rate increases. Additionally, TD’s economic team anticipates another 50 or 60 basis points in mortgage rate relief on five-year terms, which, along with a normalizing yield curve, could help soften the blow for renewing borrowers.

Scotiabank’s Gomes agreed, noting that today’s borrowers generally have more home equity and income than in previous years. “If you look at 2019 compared to today, equity in the home has gone up 45%,” she said. This increased equity gives borrowers more options to refinance or adjust their mortgage terms if needed.

Addressing the ‘elephant in the room’: TD on U.S. fines and Canadian impact

Devon Ajram, VP and National Director of TD’s Broker Services, addressed what he called the “bazillion-pound elephant in the room,” that being the recent $3-billion in fines levied against TD in the U.S. due to its anti-money laundering failures.

In terms of its impact on Canadian banking and more specifically the broker space, Ajram said “there is absolutely no impact. It’s business as usual for us…In fact, given some of the limitations that we’ve had placed upon us, it actually puts an onus on [us driving] potentially more growth in Canada.”

Ajram highlighted TD’s substantial investments in safeguarding its brand, emphasizing that the bank is committed to ensuring it has the necessary expertise, technology, and controls in place to protect its operations for the long term to prevent similar issues from arising in the future.

Broker panel weighs 2025 outlook, broker education, and the fixed vs. variable-rate debate

National Mortgage Conference - Montreal 2024 Broker Panel

This year’s broker panel tackled industry trends and challenges for 2025, covering everything from market outlooks to professional development and the fixed-versus-variable-rate debate, and even a $10,000 bet on where mortgage rates are headed.

Here are some of the biggest takeaways:

2025 will be a good year for brokers

Now that mortgage rates are falling, homeowners are keen on either jumping into the market, or refinancing to a lower rate. Ron Butler, a longtime broker and host of the Angry Mortgage podcast, went so far as to bet $10,000 that conventional mortgage rates in the next six months will fall to 3.89%.

“The mortgage business is a cyclical business, if anyone hasn’t noticed,” he said “Next year’s going to be OK. This year is bad.” Instead of fretting, Butler suggested brokers embrace the cyclical nature of the mortgage industry and look forward to the boom times.

However, simply waiting for the Bank of Canada to readjust its overnight interest rate isn’t enough. Jill Moellering, an Edmonton-based broker, said plenty of brokers who started in 2020 made easy money at first, but later struggled because they hadn’t built up their business strategy or learned about mortgage policies and products.

“Just put some work in and spend the time to hone your craft,” she said.

Brokers weigh the choice: financial advisor or business focus

Many mortgage brokers today see themselves as financial advisors capable of guiding clients through one of the biggest purchases they’ll ever make. A half-hour on the phone when big financial news breaks can calm a worried customer, even if it doesn’t lead to any more money in the broker’s pocket that day.

“To me, the value in every interaction is creating referral sources,” said David Larock of Integrated Mortgage Planners. “Every morning, the phone rings. Sometimes, there’s business, and sometimes I’m just helping people.” To Larock, explaining a client’s financial options to them is the best thing any broker can do to keep an existing client.

But there is a cost to being an up-to-date broker. Butler, a longtime media commentator, said there’s nothing wrong with brokers deciding they don’t want to act as financial advisors to clients. Those that do, however, should expect to read about 20 hours a week on top of their workload. “If you want to be this kind of a subject matter expert,” Butler said, “you’ve got to spend some time reading and learning.”

Variable rates may be worth breaking existing mortgages…but be careful

Falling interest rates present a dilemma for fixed-rate mortgage holders eager for a better deal: is it worth breaking their mortgage, switching to a variable rate, and paying the associated penalties? Butler advised brokers to reach out to clients with rates in the 4% to 5% range, providing an honest assessment of the penalties and potential savings. “And there will be money made,” Butler said.

Larock, by contrast, cautioned the audience against persuading clients to switch to a variable-rate mortgage if they are better-suited to the stability of a fixed rate. “We can’t see around corners. We don’t know what the future is going to hold,” he told the panel. “We don’t want to project confidence when we have no right to it.”

On the other hand, Clinton Wilkins, team leader at the Halifax-based Clinton Wilkins Mortgage Team, said brokers should prepare to have these conversations, as the fixed vs. variable decision is one that will be facing countless new purchasers and those renewing in the coming years. “These hard conversations are going to be coming, you just wait,” he said. In a year or two, he said, customers may decide to break their mortgages early as interest rates continue to drop.

A-list keynote speakers explore teamwork under extreme conditions

Most brokerage teams won’t face the pressures of scaling Everest, playing in the Super Bowl, or orbiting Earth. But for Sebastian Sasseville, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, and Chris Hadfield, success—and sometimes survival—hinged on teamwork at a level most of us can only imagine.

However, their experiences offer valuable lessons for those tackling tough regulatory shifts, managing stressed clients, or keeping an exhausted team motivated—challenges all too familiar to mortgage brokers.

Nothing is a solo effort

Sébastien Sasseville, an endurance athlete and teamwork expert, has run across Canada, ridden across America, and climbed Mount Everest—all while living with type-1 diabetes. These are impressive accomplishments, to put it lightly, but Sasseville cannot take all the credit.

During his Mount Everest climb, he had the help of Sherpa guides, as well as other trusted team members. Same for his 7,500-kilometre run from St. John’s to Vancouver, where one of his best friends drove his support van at 10 kilometres an hour for the entire journey. His team for the 4,800-kilometre Race Across America, where the clock never stops, was 10 people.

“There is absolutely nothing I have done that was an individual effort,” he told National Mortgage Conference attendees during his keynote. “Everything I’ve done was always a collective effort, and a collective success.”

Excellence requires diversity

A 53-man NFL team is not a group of generalists. To Laurent Duverney-Tardif, a former guard for the Kansas City Chiefs and the New York Jets, only one of his personal statistics truly mattered—the number of sacks he had against an opposing quarterback. He had to see himself in the actions of his other talented teammates, like Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahone.

“Football is probably the most diverse sport there is,” Duverney-Tardif told the conference. Running backs, quarterbacks, offensive linesman like himself all had their talents, and all had to work together seamlessly to win. “There’s not a single sport with that many different backgrounds in a single body.”

When Duverney-Tardif swapped his shoulder pads for a doctor’s coat, he found the same was true inside the Jewish General Hospital in Montreal, where he works today. Everyone has their own skills and specialties, and everyone is essential to the function of a great team, be it a Superbowl-winning NFL lineup or an emergency room.

The greatest antidote to fear is confidence

Fear is something Colonel Chris Hadfield, Canada’s first astronaut to walk in space, is all too familiar with. Whether it’s piloting a Soyuz from the International Space Station into the windswept prairies of Kazakstan, piloting a CF-18 fighter jet to intercept a Soviet bomber in the Canadian Arctic, or simply giving a presentation in front of thousands of attendees at the National Mortgage Conference, the veteran astronaut and former Air Force officer knows how to face stressful situations with ease.

“The greatest antidote to fear is competence,” he said. “Whenever I feel the twinges of fear—and I still do, sometimes, at this stage—I try and figure out why. What am I afraid of? What’s the actual fear? Because sometimes fear is just a nebulous nothing. There’s actually no downside. Your body is just imagining stuff.”

When astronauts train to launch into orbit, or further afield, they break their fear of the unknown with rigorous training. In Hadfield’s case, that meant training for spacewalks on Earth while underwater. It means understanding all of the ways a situation can go horribly wrong, and how to respond to each of them.

This mentality of constant improvement is baked into astronauts from the very beginning, Hadfield said, regardless of where they come from. “If there’s one common characteristic of astronauts, it is a perpetual dissatisfaction with your own level of competence,” Hadfield said, “an absolute burning need to get better at things.”

Mortgage snippets – Concurrent Session Highlights

The AI advantage—Transforming your business with artificial intelligence: Mortgage professionals are constantly switching between closing deals, drumming up new business, and managing their online profiles. Reuven Gorsht, co-founder and CEO of real estate and mortgage tech platform Deeded, said AI can help brokers offload some of their work, especially around self-promotion and research.
“Some of the apps that I show you today are going to be game changers for the mortgage industry,” he said. From Wondercraft (a podcast creation app) to Humantic (a social media analysis tool), brokers can quickly whip up websites, videos, and websites from whole cloth. One of these apps, Notebook, even allows you to create a private ChatGPT instance that can trawl your data and respond to queries.

Gorsht’s main takeaway was that brokers who use AI will have an edge on those who don’t, but he doesn’t believe any of these tools will replace the need for a flesh-and-blood mortgage professional to guide clients. “We all know the human touch – about being there for your client at midnight when they’re anxious about losing their home,” he told the seminar. “AI is not going to do that.”
Unlocking potential: The imperative of diversity and inclusion in the mortgage industry : As a gay Trinidadian man, Steven Boodoo didn’t feel like he belonged during his time at one of Canada’s biggest banks. Whenever he sought promotions, his extensive experience didn’t seem to matter – the successful candidate often ended up being a straight white man hired from outside the organization. “We need to work two to three times harder than the person who doesn’t look like us, just to be seen for our value,” Boodoo said.
Now a lead mortgage associate at Mortgage Architects, Boodoo said one of the most important ways to help clients and coworkers in marginalized groups feel comfortable is to help them onto an evening footing with everyone else. That means doing extra work to understand their identities, listen to their concerns, and give them the best advice possible free of unconscious bias.

Diversity and inclusion isn’t just the right thing to do, it can also tap clients and potential employees who’ve been poorly served elsewhere, and will be loyal to your brokerage if treated with respect. “The reality is that we have tonnes of Canadians arriving every day,” Boodoo said, “which means you have tonnes of potential to earn business.”
Leading to success: Dino Di Pancrazio, chief strategy officer and head of mortgage at M3 Financial Group, started his session on leadership by saying that anyone in the room could deliver his presentation. “A lot of it is common sense,” he said. Leaders need to be able to inspire, motivate, and guide their teams. They need a clear vision, integrity, a willingness to make difficult decisions, and an empathetic touch.
However, there is a different between a leader and a manager – and promotions to supervisory roles are usually based on someone’s technical skills in the mortgage industry, not whether they’re able to lead others. “You can be a great manager and not be a good leader,” Di Pancrazio said.

Any good leader needs a team to rally behind, and Di Pancrazio said leaders should carefully consider its composition. Cultural fit within a team, which includes how much other members trust them, is often more important than a team member’s technical performance. “I can bring someone up from low performance to high performance with training,” he said. “I can probably never change the fit.”
Fraud trends and prevention: Equifax Canada’s call to action for brokers: While the national mortgage fraud rate is down by about 16% compared to last year, fraudsters haven’t gone away—they’re simply shifting their focus to other financial products. Cheryl Prince, Director of Fraud Consulting at Equifax Canada, warns that brokers still face mounting pressure to stay vigilant and proactive, however.
“We know that fraudsters don’t work in isolation and they don’t just target one product or service or one business type or one industry,” she said, noting that auto fraud is up 54% year-over-year. However, one region bucking the trend is Alberta, where mortgage fraud rates have surged alongside migration-driven lending growth, Prince added.

She also noted that the average mortgage amount was up 6.1% year-over-year. Declining affordability and challenging economic times are creating a “perfect storm” for fraud, Prince warned. In a recent Equifax survey, nearly 1 in 10 respondents admitted they’d consider committing fraud under current economic pressures. Prince’s message to brokers was clear: they are a key line of defense. By adopting a culture of collaboration and vigilance, brokers can help keep the doors closed to fraudsters across all financial sectors.
Building your brokerage’s success: Lessons in efficiency and scaling: Renée Huse from Spire Mortgage Team has spent years perfecting her brokerage model, and her approach boils down to a simple formula: know your strengths and streamline the rest. Huse, who once traded commodities, realized early in her mortgage career that she excels at client interactions and building trust over the phone. The challenge, she explained, was creating a structure that allowed her to focus solely on that without getting mired in administrative tasks.
“I’ve gotten pretty good at just that one thing. An that’s building trust and making people feel excited about something on the phone,” she shared. “You have to be hyper focused on what you do well.” To make that happen, she’s learned to lean heavily on a support team. Over the years, has grown to include three full-time underwriters, two fulfillment staff, an executive assistant, and a marketing person. This, Huse explained, lets her concentrate on driving revenue without sacrificing service quality.

Huse emphasized that hiring is crucial, as is clarity around staff responsibilities. She also highlighted the importance of regular self-assessment, encouraging brokers to audit their client process every six months to ensure smooth workflows. “If something falls through the cracks,” she noted, “it’s on me to fix it.”

Her advice to fellow brokers is simple: stay focused on what you do best and empower your team to handle the rest.