Donald Trump’s resounding US election victory is far more comprehensive than anyone had predicted, as he rode a wave of support from black and Latino voters to retake the White House.
Central to his battle over Kamala Harris were the seven crucial swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, yet despite polls showing the pair ‘on a knife edge’ Trump is now set to win them all and – in contrast to 2016 – the popular vote too.
His triumph would have been impossible without a huge surge of support from black and Latino Americans at the same time as women voters – who liberal pundits had hoped would push Harris to victory – failed to turn out for her as expected.
It marks an astonishing moment of political redemption for a man who was written off after his 2020 loss to Joe Biden before facing a string of unprecedented legal cases and, finally, two shocking assassination attempts.
As so often with Trump, his win marks a series of firsts, with the Republican becoming the first former president to return to power since Grover Cleveland in 1892, the first person convicted of a felony to be elected and, at 78, the oldest person elected to the office.
And just as typically, pollsters who continually forecast the election as too close to call were proved spectacularly wrong. Yet ordinary Americans placing bets on the result appeared to be in less doubt about who would win, with the odds of a Trump win put at 62 per cent within hours of the polls opening.
Donald Trump – pictured beaming last night – has once again defied America’s liberal elites to win the presidency
Trump’s victory brings an end to a tumultuous 2024 campaign – punctuated with Joe Biden’s dramatic withdrawal from the race in July, as well as two shocking attempts on his life
As of 8.00 ET (13.00 GMT) Trump has already won the swing states of North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and is currently ahead in Michigan, Nevada, and Arizona.
Some of the reasons for his triumph can be found in exit polls, which showed Hispanic men backing Trump over Harris by a 10-point margin of 54 per cent to 44 per cent.
By contrast, in the 2020 contest Joe Biden won Latino males by a 23-point margin of 59 per cent to 36 per cent.
And while Harris still gained a majority of Latinas – 62 per cent – this was still down by the 69 per cent achieved by Biden.
Crucially, Trump also made inroads with black voters, more than doubling his support among this key demographic in Wisconsin compared with 2020, according to NBC’s exit poll.
Overall, about eight in 10 black voters backed Harris, down from the roughly nine in 10 who backed Mr Biden.
Even as the results started rolling in for Trump, many pollsters maintained that Harris stood a decent chance of winning last night.
James Johnson, of JL Partners, is one of the very few who correctly predicted a definitive Trump victory.
He believes traditional pollsters are consistently missing Trump voters, who don’t trust the establishment and won’t engage with ‘some weirdo’ who phones up asking how they intend to vote.
‘They’ve made the same mistakes for the last three election cycles,’ he said. ‘Every time they have missed this elusive voter who is white, male, lives in the countryside, probably hasn’t got a college degree and who doesn’t trust the media.
‘These people live normal lives. They are blue collar workers who are probably pulling factory shifts. They don’t fancy telling some weirdo how they’re going to vote, they’ve got much better things to do.
‘Unless they drastically overhaul the way they work, pollsters will continue to miss these people.’
As well as the white working class, traditional polls also missed the big contingent of Hispanic and black Trump voters.
Mr Johnson says this is because those people are very difficult to pin down, and may not be honest in a quick vox pop-style interview.
‘They’re less engaged and less trusting, and many of them are just too busy,’ he said. ‘It’s incredibly difficult to get through to people who are juggling two or three different jobs.
‘With the non-white voters, there is a big social desirability bias. It’s still a bit awkward in a lot of black or Hispanic communities to say that you’re a Trump voter.
‘Only by conducting 60 or 90 minute interviews will you get down to what they really believe. You start to see how they view the world.’
Mr Johnson said he conducted many long interviews with Hispanic voters in swing states.
In the first five or 10 minutes, they wouldn’t saying they are voting for Trump. But after an hour, they started telling him they were deeply concerned about illegal migration.
One Asian American in Detroit told him: ‘I came to this country the right way. I don’t want to lose the country I came to.’
He said another mistake made by traditional pollsters is to think that black people will automatically prefer a black candidate.
In fact, many black men did not like Kamala because they saw her as weak, and did not appreciate her endorsements from white elites like Taylor Swift.
One mixed-race factory worker from Tennille, Georgia, said: ‘If you think white men have a problem with black women, wait until you hear what black men think.’
Respected American pollster Ann Selzer was among those who got it devastatingly wrong. She projected Kamala Harris would pull off a shock win in the swing state of Iowa.
She predicted a very high percentage of older women were preparing to turn out for Harris, but Mr Johnson said: ‘They are just the most likely group of people to give the time of day to somebody who calls them up, because they love a good natter. That’s why Ann Selzer screwed up so badly.’
Mr Johnson said his more successful approach involved engaging voters where they normally look – such as in mobile phone games, where they would be offered in-game rewards for completing surveys.
Trump celebrates with his running mate, JD Vance, during an election watch party at Palm Beach in Florida
The Republican’s vanquished opponent Kamala Harris – pictured last night – has not yet commented on a disastrous night for the Democrats
While professional pollsters once again flopped, a more prescient perspective was provided by the betting markets – which enjoyed a surge of custom as Americans were allowed to bet on the result for the first time.
Polymarket and Kalshi respectively gave Trump about a 62 percent to 38 percent and 59 percent to 41 percent lead over Harris a few hours after polls opened.
In state after state, Trump outperformed what he did in the 2020 election while Harris failed to do as well as Biden did in winning the presidency four years ago.
For all of the showmanship, profanity and name-calling, Trump ultimately won over voters with grand promises to improve the economy, block the flow of immigrants on the southern border and his siren call to ‘make America great again’.
Overall, about half of Trump voters said inflation was the biggest issue factoring into their election decisions. About as many said that of the situation at the US-Mexico border, according to AP VoteCast.
He also sold them the promise of the largest mass deportation effort in US history, although he has not explained how such an operation would work.
And he is threatening to impose massive tariffs on key products from China and other American adversaries, which economists warn could dramatically boost prices for average Americans.
The pivotal moment came when North Carolina was called for Trump at 11:19pm (ET).
Then, the quiet crowd at the official Republican watch party, held in a convention center in Florida’s West Palm Beach, erupted in a release of nervous energy.
At the same time, the mood at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort – where he was sat amid friends and family watching the results roll in – switched from cautious optimism to ‘a sense of destiny’, one attendee said.
Later at the convention center in the early hours of Wednesday morning, Trump was joined on stage by his jubilant family and campaign staff, as he addressed his adoring fans and declared: ‘We’re going to help our country heal.’
‘This was, I believe, the greatest political movement of all time,’ he said. ‘This is a magnificent victory for the American people, that will allow us to make America great again.’
Meanwhile, Republicans have claimed control of the Senate, ousting veteran senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio and putting several other Democratic incumbents on the edge of defeat.
The results will give Trump a significant advantage in pushing his agenda through Congress.
Their only hope is to win a House majority built mostly through key suburban districts in California and New York, but that was far from certain early on Wednesday.
And either way, the results shrink Democrats’ geographic footprint and, with Mr Brown’s loss, diminish the kind of working class voice that can counter Mr Trump’s appeal.
Trump already succeeded in painting Democrats as out-of-touch culturally with middle America.
Now Democrats are left to wonder how to reconnect with parts of the country and slices of the electorate that rejected them.
On July 13, while addressing crowds at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, the bullet of a would-be assassin ripped through Trump’s right ear. Just days later, he received a hero’s welcome (pictured) in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, at the Republican National Convention.
Overall, about half of Trump voters said inflation was the biggest issue factoring into their election decisions
After announcing he would run again back in November 2022, Trump comfortably saw off other Republican hopefuls – including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley – to secure the Party nomination in March this year.
Entering the summer, he held a comfortable polling lead over Biden, 81, whose record on the economy and immigration, as well as the obvious problem of his advancing age, were proving disastrous among voters.
The now notorious CNN television debate between the two presumptive nominees on June 27 – in which Biden froze and mumbled, appearing unable to clearly answer even basic questions – only helped Trump further.
On July 13, while addressing crowds at rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, the bullet of would-be assassin Thomas Matthew Crooks ripped through Trump’s right ear.
After being swarmed by Secret Service agents, Trump rose to his feet – his shoes missing and his face bloodied – pumping his fist in the air and shouting: ‘Fight! Fight! Fight!’
Just days later, he received a hero’s welcome in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, at the Republican National Convention.
MAGA fans donned mock bandages on their ears in solidarity with the former president and, in a stirring speech on the final night, Trump told a packed-out convention center that he would be a ‘president for all of America’.
But, just three days later, everything changed. Holed up in Camp David with his family, Biden posted a bombshell letter on X announcing that he was withdrawing from the 2024 race.
‘I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term,’ he wrote, before endorsing Kamala Harris as his replacement on the Democratic ticket within the hour.
But, just three days later, everything changed. Holed up in Camp David with his family, Biden announced that he was withdrawing from the 2024 race. He endorsed Kamala Harris as his replacement on the Democratic ticket within the hour and she swiftly corralled support, raking in more than $100 million in donor cash in 24 hours.
Harris swiftly corralled support, raking in more than $100 million in donor cash in 24 hours. As she formally accepted the party nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago the following month – a star-studded event featuring the likes of Oprah, Eva Longoria and Kerry Washington – she was polling comfortably ahead of Trump.
Harris then trounced Trump in the first and last TV debate between the pair on September 10. His wild accusation that Haitian migrants were ‘eating the dogs […] eating the cats’ of American citizens was an instant internet meme.
In fact, such was Harris’s surging popularity that a second attempt to assassinate Trump – on his West Palm Beach golf course just days later – barely moved the needle.
Fresh pain came for the Trump campaign as his running mate – and now the Vice President-elect – Ohio Senator JD Vance, was hit by a string of disinterred comments in which he attacked female Democrats.
In the most damning, from a 2021 interview, he called Harris, and other women who don’t have children of their own, ‘childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives’.
Indeed, a gender divide swiftly became a key feature of the 2024 race.
Trump’s role in helping to reverse Roe v Wade in 2022, removing the constitutional right to an abortion and returning the decision on related laws to the states, has proven particularly unpopular with female voters.
The final ABC/Ipsos poll, published this Sunday, had Harris with an 11-point advantage among women.
In the end, however, it seems abortion wasn’t the silver-bullet issue Harris had hoped for. In Florida, Governor DeSantis’s controversial 6-week abortion ban was also on the ballot. But, despite having won every other pro-abortion ballot measure since Roe was overturned, Democrats failed for the first time on Tuesday, falling short of the 60 percent of votes needed to overturn the Florida ban.
Following his victory, Trump must now prepare for government once again. In 2016, he brought in officials from the Republican National Committee as well as from the armed forces who were seen as moderating influences. (Trump is pictured at the RNC in July with Melania).
This time around, he controls the RNC with his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump (pictured with husband Eric in October), at the helm.
Trump, meanwhile, has made substantial inroads with male voters this year. Despite liberal criticisms that he and Vance were making the campaign – complete with a shirt-ripping Hulk Hogan – too ‘bro-tastic’, it appears a strong male voter turnout helped Trump clinch it in the end.
In recent weeks, Harris’s healthy poll lead waned, as she finally buckled to pressure to submit herself to rigorous TV interviews. Her rambling and often incoherent answers to questions drew ire even among fans, with veteran Dem strategist David Axelrod last month accusing Harris of going to ‘word salad city’.
In the final days of the campaign, pollsters were almost unanimous in their verdict: this race was too close to call.
Some Trump-friendly analysts, however, pointed to the fact he is consistently under-polled, and that a dead-heat suggested he had the advantage.
Certainly, the immigration crisis on the Southern border, the state of the economy and inflation, as well as the Biden-Harris administration’s record on foreign affairs – from the botched Afghanistan withdrawal in 2021, to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and the outbreak of war in Israel last year – all worked in Trump’s favor.
Following his victory, Trump must now prepare for government once again, undoubtedly drawing from a band of MAGA loyalists who have stuck with him through roiling controversies.
In 2016, he brought in officials from the Republican National Committee as well as from the armed forces who were seen as moderating influences.
Despite concerns that he and Vance were making the campaign too ‘bro-tastic’, it appears a strong male voter turnout helped Trump clinch it in the end. (Trump’s son Barron is pictured at a rally on July 9).
Trump’s opponents fear his new administration will be packed with extremists who will empower the president to do as he pleases. He has promised Elon Musk (left) a role in the administration, aimed at reducing government waste. Trump also promised RFK (right) a major health role.
This time around, he controls the RNC with his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, at the helm. Meanwhile, military officers who served in his first administration, such as his Chief of Staff, General John Kelly, have warned Trump is not fit for office.
Trump’s liberal opponents fear his new administration will be packed with extremists who will empower the president to do as he pleases.
On day one in 2017, Trump immediately signed an executive order banning travel from seven mostly Muslim countries.
This time, he has promised to fire the special counsel who is prosecuting him on election interference charges, free some inmates convicted of January 6 offenses, and begin large-scale deportations of illegal immigrants.
Despite the ignominy of those Jan 6 riots and his false ‘stolen vote’ claims after Biden narrowly defeated him in 2020, the American public have softened their opinion on his first term over the last four years, choosing instead to remember the strong economy and secure borders that he oversaw.
Boldly launching his campaign on the back of unexpectedly disappointing 2022 midterm results for Republicans, it was Trump’s sheer force of personality that ultimately saw him grip the party’s grassroots and surge back to unshakeable public prominence.
Tim Murtaugh, Team Trump’s communications chief, told the Daily Mail that the key moment came in closing hours of the race, when Trump donned an apron and manned the fry station at a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania last month.
Despite the ignominy of the Jan 6 riots (pictured) and Trump’s false ‘stolen vote’ claims after Biden narrowly defeated him in 2020, the American public have softened their opinion on his first term over the last four years.
Tim Murtaugh, Team Trump’s communications chief, told the Daily Mail that the key moment came in closing hours of the race, when Trump donned an apron and manned the fry station at a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania last month (pictured).
It was Trump’s sheer force of personality that ultimately saw him grip the party’s grassroots and surge back to unshakeable public prominence. (Donald and Melania, pictured as he is sworn in as the 45th president in 2017).
‘It wasn’t necessarily the act of making French fries or running the drive-thru window,’ he said.
‘It was when he made his approach in the motorcade down the street in Bucks County [PA]. There were 10,000 people lining the street, ten deep on both sides, and that was not a crowd that we built.’
The McDonald’s stunt was meant to be unadvertised, but a local paper got hold of the details and published a story, bringing out a spontaneous crowd.
In the end, an equally spontaneous and sizeable voter turnout – both in early ballots and on Election Day itself – buoyed Trump to victory and kick-started a second term that no doubt will be as dramatic and consequential as the first.
